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22 July 2019

Grains

In 2016/17 MY production of grains increased by 9% to 65 mln tons. The increase in the gross yield of wheat by 1,4 mln tons and maize by 3,6 mln. tons is the main prerequisite for increasing of the total yield of grain. Despite the increase in gross production, volume of exports in 2016/17 MR is expected at the level of the previous year. The level of the final stocks is expected at a higher level than in the previous marketing year.

Grains balance, thsd t 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19*
Initial stocks 6831 8981 6044 6454
6305
Harvesting area, thsd ha 14627 14641 14337 14560 14782
Yield, с / ha 4.4 4.1 4.6 4.3 4.7
Production 63859 60126 66088 61917 69800
Import 197 211 223 279 237
Total supply 70888 69 207 72355 68649 76342
Export 35179 39924 45212 40956
47472
For feed and fodder   14933 12728 10226 10610 11671
Food processing 6208 5835 5685 5578
5392
Industrial consumption 1294 1057 1258 1577 1142
Seeds  2236 2325 2217 2221 2266
Losses  2056 1405 1303 1403 1758
Domestic distribution 61906 63273
65901 62344
69789
End stocks 8981 6044 6454
6305 6554
* Forecast 
Source: Supply and demand balance of Ukraine, FAO / EBRD

The increase in the cost of production is connected not only with the inflation processes and with the increasing cost of materials, but also due to the investments in new technologies that allow to get the best results. The level of profitability of grains production in recent years demonstrates positive dynamics, despite the macroeconomic factors.

Wheat

Wheat balance, thsd t 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/2019*
Initial stocks 2908  4295 3229 2604 2307
Harvesting area, thsd ha 6011 6840 6221 6361 6601
Yield, с / ha 4 3.9 4.2 4.1 3.7
Production 24114 26532 26148 26158 24586
Import 32 27 38 57 81
Total supply 24 162 30853 29415 28818 26975
Export 11305 17455 18134 17805 16372
For feed and fodder   4512 3436 2219 2242 2120
Food processing 4934 4645 4579 4500 4351
Industrial consumption 229 206 193 195 173
Seeds  1294 1466 1330 1359 1412
Losses  485 417 357 409 375
Domestic distribution 22759 27264 26811 26511 24803
End stocks 4295 3229 2604 2307 2172
* Forecast
 

Source: Supply and demand balance of Ukraine, FAO / EBRD

 


The production of wheat in 2016/17 MR was 26,7 mln tons, which is 0,2 mln tons more than the previous marketing year. The increase in production is observed due to favorable weather conditions during the growing season, which allowed raising the yield of wheat by 4,33 t/ha on average in Ukraine, which is 0,4 t/ha more than during the previous period. Reduction of acreage did not affect the gross yield through the growth of productivity. In the current marketing year the volume of wheat exports is expected at the level of 16,3 mln tons, where –  60% of food wheat, 40% - fodder.

The production cost of wheat

Source: State Statistics Service of Ukraine 

The level of profitability of wheat, %

Source: State Statistics Service of Ukraine 

Wheat shows the growth of the production cost that deals with the growth of prices of production resources, which was observed during the last period. This was especially noticeable in the period of high inflation in 2015 and devaluation of UAH that led to the growth of prices.

For a long time, even despite the adverse weather conditions, wheat showed good results in the profitability of production, but slightly lower than corn, sunflower and soy. 

Procurement prices for wheat

Source: Price monitoring by UCAB

Purchasing prices for wheat over a long period demonstrating the rising price trend in UAH equivalent.  For causes, consequences and forecasts, please, look in the section Analytics - Grains and oilseeds review.

Barley

Barley balance, thsd t 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19*
Initial stocks 767 668 418 791 684
Harvesting area, thsd ha 3003 2805 2859 2502 2483
Yield, с / ha 3 3 3.3 3,3 3.0
Production 9046 8288 9436 8285 7346
Import 8 16 19 17 23
Total supply 9821 8972 9872 9092
8052
Export 4480 4485 5483 4447 3558
For feed and fodder   3402 3000 2456 2 840
2749
Food processing 76 73 71 70 67
Industrial consumption 461 347 414 459 430
Seeds  549 509 453 453 451
Losses  186 140 140 140 117
Domestic distribution 9153 8554 9082 8409
7373
End stocks 668 418 791 684 680
* Forecast 
Source: Supply and demand balance of Ukraine, FAO / EBRD

The production of barley in the Ukraine during the current marketing year amounted to 9,7 mln tons, which is 1,5 mln tons more than during the previous year.  The increase in the production deals with a number of factors, including favourable weather conditions during the growing season. Moreover, an important factor is the improvement of production technologies, which also allowed to potentially increase yields. As the result, yields of barley grown by 0,1404 t/ha to 3,4 t/ha on average in Ukraine.


The production cost of barley

Source: State Statistics Service of Ukraine 

The cost of barley production in recent years increased gradually. A slight decrease in planted acreages and the relatively low level of profitability stimulates producers to restrict the areas under crops in favor of crops like corn, sunflower, or soybean

The level of profitability of barley,%

Source: State Statistics Service of Ukraine 

Domestic barley prices in recent years demonstrates the trend to growth. UAH barley price depends on market conditions and prices on international trading platforms, as well as on the the UAH exchange rate to USD. In February 2015, the rate of national currency daily experienced significant fluctuations, which resulted in internal prices. The more detailed situation on the cereals market can be observed in the section Analytics - Grains and oilseeds review.

Procurement prices for barley, EXW, UAH


Corn balance, thsd t 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19*
Initial stocks 1992 2130 1354 1796
1631
Harvesting area, thsd ha 4627 4084 4252 4481 4557
Yield, с / ha 6,2 5.7 6.6 5.5 7.8
Production 28497 23328 28075 24669 35569
Import 30 30 28 40 33
Total supply 30518 25461 29457 26505 37232
Export 19683 16672 21281 17870
27589
For feed and fodder   6475 5802 4629
4946
5889
Food processing 124 126 130 126 122
Industrial consumption 535 471 631 863 516
Seeds  549 509 518 453 451
Losses  186 140 140 140 117
Domestic distribution 28415 24106
27662
24874
35582
End stocks 2103
1354
1796 1631
1650
* Forecast 
Source: Supply and demand balance of Ukraine, FAO / EBRD

Gross production of corn in 2016/17 MR totaled 26,9 mln tons, that is 3,6 mln tons more than the previous marketing year. The increase of acreages on 150 hectares was a potential factor for the increase of production. However, the improvement of the production technology and favorable weather conditions during the growing of the culture helped to increase the production. It should also be noted, that in the current marketing year according to various estimates 5-7% of area under corn remained to winter.

The production cost of corn

Source: State Statistics Service of Ukraine 

The cost of corn production, as well as the cost of the rest cultures, demonstrates the rising price trend.  However, the level of profitability of corn is higher than that of wheat and barley. In 2015 the level of corn profitability amounted to 50%.

The level of profitability of corn, %

Source: State Statistics Service of Ukraine 

The price of corn showed a similar price trend as the contiguous markets of grains. The export value and the dollar price you can find in the section Analytics - Grains and oilseeds review

Procurement prices for corn, EXW, UAH

Source: Price monitoring by UCAB

For more detailed information, please contact: 
phone.: ‎‎+380 (44) 236-20-95 
e-mail: survey{@}ucab.ua