According to the forecast conducted by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development as well as the World Food Programme, in the next 10 years (2020-2029), Ukraine is going to continue to improve its position in the world market and potentially make the TOP-5 grain exporting countries increasing its share to almost 14% * .
It is expected that the world market will remain the tendency to increase grain production. Thus, it is estimated that due to increased crop yields the world production will grow by 375 million tons and exceed 3 billion tons.
According to forecasts, wheat production in Ukraine by the end of 2029 will reach 34 million tons or 4.1% of the world production. For comparison, in 2019 wheat production was 28 million tons or 3.7% of the world production. Considering that the crop production area for wheat will remain almost unchanged - 6.81 million hectares in 2019 and 6.91 million hectares in 2029, growth production will be achieved through increasing productivity by 20% - from 4.11 t / ha in 2019 to 4.94 t / ha in 2029. In order to increase productivity it is necessary to invest in new technologies for growing and harvesting, planting and cultivation. Ukraine is expected to keep increasing wheat export, and by the end of the next decade it will be slightly more than 25 million tons, which is 7 million tons more than Ukraine exported in 2019. Owing to the yield growth, Ukraine will carry on strengthening its position as one of the world's leading exporters, and by the end of 2029 Ukraine's share in the world market will reach almost 12% (11.83%). Thus, at the end of the next decade in the wheat market Ukraine will rank sixth in wheat production, and will share with Canada fourth place in terms of its export.
World corn production will increase to 1.3 billion tons. According to the forecast, Ukraine will continue to increase corn production. At the end of the next decade, corn production in Ukraine will increase by 14% and reach almost 39 million tons or 3% of world production (7th place in the world). The crop cultivation area for corn will remain at the level of 5 million hectares, and productivity will increase by almost 1 ton per hectare to the level of 7.81 t / ha at the end of 2029. For comparison, the productivity of corn production in the United States in 2019 was at 10.5 t / ha, in Canada - 9.24 t / ha. Ukraine's share in the world exports is anticipated to decline slightly, from 17% in 2019 to 16% in 2029. Despite the fact that Ukraine will increase corn export to 31 million tons (4th place in the world).
Rice production will continue to be concentrated in the countries such as China and India, since these countries have unique opportunities to produce this crop, i.e. the possibility to harvest several crops in one year.
With regard to other cereals such as barley, oats and rye, at the end of the next decade the global production is anticipated to increase to 319 million tons. In Ukraine, the total production of these crops is expected to grow by more than 1 million tons or to the level of 11.6 million tons, as a result of which our country will continue to hold the 8th place in the production of these grains. Export will increase from 5.2 million tons in 2019 to 6.4 million tons in 2029, thus strengthening its position in the world market and ranking 5th in the world.
* For reference: data analysis has been performed without taking into consideration the rice market.