Every year the number of people on the planet increases and, at the same time, consumer tastes are changing. Despite the widespreading of vegetarianism in the world, we have the opposite trend - the growth of demand of various types of meat, especially in Asian countries, where the increase in household incomes leads to an increase in protein consumption. The main players on the meat market are: the USA, Brazil and the EU. How will consumers' tastes change by 2025 and where the market will move?
According to the FAO and OECD calculations, global production of all types of meat in 2025 will increase by 16% compared to the average production in 2013-15. The largest increase in production is projected among the group of developing countries. In 2013-15, pork production prevailed in the world - about 117 mln tons (in slaughter weight), poultry meat produced about 110.3 mln tons, and meat of cattle - 69 mln tons. In 2025, the structure of consumption will change by taking into account changes in consumer tastes. Thus, poultry meat will be more popular than pork and its production will amount to approximately 131.3 mln tons, pork production will increase to 131 mln tons, and cattle meat - to 77.8 mln tons.
Thus, poultry meat will be the driving force behind the growth of total production as a result of an increase in world demand for this more affordable product, compared with red meat. Poultry will be selected by both producers and consumers in developing countries due to its availability. Developed countries will also gradually abandon red meat in connection with reports of their health hazards and will prefer the poultry meat.
According to the FAO and OECD forecasts, in 2025, global exports will increase by 22% compared to 2013-15 and will amount to around 38.6 mln tons (in slaughter weight), for comparison, in 2015 it amounted 31.7 mln tons. Thus, exports will grow at a faster pace than meat production. As for different types of meat, the situation will be as follows: the export of poultry meat in 2025 will increase by 28.7% and will amount to 15.3 mln tons, supplies of pork will increase by 20% to 13.3 mln tons, and cattle meat - by 15.4% to 8.4 mln tons.
The USA, Brazil, Argentina, the EU, as well as India and Australia will remain the main players on the market. More than a quarter of the world's export of all types of meat will be provided by the United States, while exports from the EU will increase marginally. The share of developed countries will still occupy more than half of the world's meat exports, but it will steadily decrease. Brazil, as well as Argentina, will benefit from the current devaluation of their currencies and will increase supplies abroad. Brazil's share of global exports is expected to increase to around 26%.
The growth rate of imports in the first years of the projection period will be weak, mainly due to a decrease in procurement because of the prohibition of the Russian Federation and a slowdown in imports from China. But overall, the total imports of meat will begin to increase in the second half of the forecast period. The main driver of this process will be developing countries. The most significant increase in imports will be observed in Vietnam, due to the country's substantial economic development. Africa also increases imports of meat, especially in countries such as Ghana, Congo and Angola.