In the 2025/26 MY, Ukraine is expected to export 17.6 mln tons of wheat, which is 11.5% higher than the previous marketing year

Wheat production is gradually recovering: the results of the harvesting campaign in the 2025/26 MY are estimated at 23.1 mln tons, which is 2.9% above the previous marketing year, but 6.2% below the 5-year average.

Key insights regarding this crop this season:

• The increase in sown areas offsets weather challenges: The gross harvest was successfully increased due to the expansion of sown areas to 5.1 mln ha (4.8% above the previous season). However, due to difficult weather conditions, the average wheat yield slightly decreased and amounted to 4.5 t/ha (1.7% below the last year).
• Logistics and export recovery: in the 2024/25 MY, exports decreased to 15.8 mln tons (a 15.1% drop). The main reason was the absence of beginning stocks for the season due to the organization of Ukraine’s own export sea route. However, in the 2025/26 MY, the production growth will allow an increase in export volumes to 17.6 mln tons.
• Reduction in domestic demand: the domestic consumption of wheat in Ukraine continues to decline, which is related to the temporary occupation of part of the territory and the forced migration of the population due to military actions. Total consumption in the 2025/26 MY is estimated at 6.2 mln tons. Of this, household (food) consumption will account for about 3.7 mln tons, and feed use – 1.5 mln tons. Grain use for seeds will also decrease from 986 thousand tons to 825 thousand tons.

Conclusion: the Ukrainian wheat market demonstrates adaptability. Despite demographic challenges and weather conditions, farmers are managing to increase sown areas. Domestic needs are fully covered, and the successful operation of export routes allows for the restoration of a positive supply dynamic and guarantees Ukraine’s stable presence in the key markets of Europe, Africa, and Asia.

Find out more in the Agricultural Outlook 2025: https://cutt.ly/XtQeCL7O