The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projected larger 2010 U.S. carryover stocks of wheat and corn but smaller stocks of soybeans in its Aug. 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.

Carryover for the current year was unchanged for wheat and soybeans but lowered for corn.

Projected carryover of U.S. wheat on June 1, 2010, was 743 million bushels, up 37 million bushels, or 5%, from 706 million bushels projected in July and up 76 million bushels, or 11%, from 667 million bushels in 2009.

Projected corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2010, was 1.6 billion bushels, up 71 million bushels, or 5%, from 1.55 billion bushels projected in July but down 99 million bushels, or 6%, from a revised 1.72 billion bushels in 2009, the USDA said.

Soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2010, was projected at 210 million bushels, down 40 million bushels, or 16%, from 250 million bushels projected in July but up 100 million bushels, or 91%, from 110 million bushels in 2009, the USDA said.

The projected 2010 USDA wheat carryover was above the average pre-report trade estimate of 737 million bushels. The USDA corn number was below the average trade estimate of 1.7 billion bushels. The soybean projection also was below analyst expectations that averaged 221 million bushels.

U.S. all wheat production was projected at 2,184 million bushels for 2009, up 72 million bushels, or 3%, from 2.112 billion bushels in July but down 316 million bushels, or 13%, from 2.5 billion bushels in 2008, based on forecast winter wheat outturn of 1.54 billion bushels, spring wheat production of 548 million bushels and a durum crop of 98 million bushels.

Total wheat supply in 2009-10 was projected at 2.96 billion bushels, up 67 million bushels, or 2%, from 2.89 billion bushels in July and up 29 million bushels, or 1%, from 2.93 billion bushels last year.

Exports of U.S. wheat for 2009-10 were projected at 950 million bushels, up 25 million bushels from July but down 65 million bushels, or 6%, from slightly more than 1 billion bushels in 2008-09.

The USDA projected domestic food use of U.S. wheat in 2009-10 at 955 million bushels, unchanged from July and up 30 million bushels, or 3%, from 925 million bushels in 2008-09. Feed and residual use was projected at 235 million bushels, up 5 million bushels from July but down 11 million bushels from 246 million bushels last year. Seed use was unchanged from July at 78 million bushels and down 1 million bushels from 2008-09.

The average farm price of U.S. wheat in 2009-10 was projected to range from $4.70-5.70 a bushel, down 10ў on both ends of the range from July, and compared with $6.78 in 2008-09 and $6.48 2007-08.

Global 2009-10 wheat production was projected at 659.29 million tonnes, up 2.81 million tonnes from July but down 23.11 million tonnes, or 3%, from record large outturn of 682.4 million tonnes in 2008-09. World wheat ending stocks were projected at 183.56 million tonnes in 2009-10, up 2.28 million tonnes from July and up 14.06 million tonnes, or 8%, from 169.5 million tonnes in 2008-09.

U.S. corn production in 2009 was projected at 12.76 billion bushels, up 471 million bushels, or 4%, from the non-survey based projection of 12.3 billion bushels in July, up 660 million bushels, or 5%, from 12.1 billion bushels in 2008, and the second largest crop on record if realized. Total corn supply in 2009-10 was projected at a record high 14,496 million bushels, up 3% from July and up 6% from 13,740 million bushels in 2008-09. Feed and residual use of corn was projected at 5.3 billion bushels, up 100 million bushels, or 2%, from 5,200 million bushels in July and up 50 million bushels from 2008-09. Feed and seed use was unchanged from July at 1,275 million bushels. Use of corn for ethanol was projected at 4.2 billion bushels in 2009-10, up 100 million bushels from July and up 550 million bushels, or 15%, from 3.65 billion bushels this year. U.S. corn exports in 2009-10 were projected at 2.1 billion bushels, up 150 million bushels, or 8%, from July and up 250 million bushels, or 14%, from 2008-09. The average farm price of corn was projected to range from $3.10-3.90 a bushel in 2009-10, down 25ў on each end of the range from July and compared with $4-4.10 this year and $4.20 in 2007-08.

World corn production in 2009-10 was projected at 796.33 million tonnes, up 1% from both a month ago and a year ago. Global corn ending stocks were projected at 141.49 million tonnes for 2009-10, up 2.32 million tonnes, or 2%, from July but down 2.59 million tonnes, or 2%, from 144.08 million tonnes in 2008-09.

U.S. soybean production in 2009 was projected at a record high 3.199 million bushels, down 61 million bushels, or 2%, from the non-survey based July projection of 3.3 billion bushels but up 240 million bushels, or 8%, from 2.959 billion bushels in 2008. Total 2009-10 soybean supply was projected at 3.32 billion bushels, down 60 million bushels from July but up 141 million bushels, or 4%, from 3.179 billion bushels in 2008-09. Domestic crush was projected at 1.67 billion bushels, down 10 million bushels from July but up 10 million bushels from 2008-09. Seed use was unchanged from July at 94 million bushels, down 2 million bushels from 2008-09. U.S. soybean exports in 2009-10 were projected at 1.3 billion bushels, down 10 million bushels from July and even with the current year. The average farm price of soybeans was projected to range from $8.40-10.40 a bushel in 2009-10, up 10ў on each side of the range from July and compared with $10 this year and $10.10 in 2007-08.

Global soybean ending stocks were projected at 50.32 million tonnes in 2009-10, down 1.51 million tonnes, or 3%, from 51.83 million tonnes in July but up 9.32 million tonnes, or 23%, from 41 million tonnes the previous year.

U.S. rice production was projected at 211.2 million cwts, up 200,000 cwts from the non-survey based July projection and up 7.5 million cwts, or 4%, from 203.7 million cwts in 2008. Carryover of rice on Aug. 1, 2010, was projected at 23.9 million cwts, up 1.2 million cwts from July and from 2008-09. The average farm price of rice was projected to range from $13.65-14.65 a cwt, up 40ў on each end of the previous month’s range, and compared with $16.25 a cwt in 2008-09 and $12.80 in 2007-08.

World rice production was projected at 433.46 million tonnes, down 15.52 million tonnes, or 3%, from the July projection and down 11.39 million tonnes, or 3%, from 444.85 million tonnes in 2008-09. Ending stocks were projected at 84.04 million tonnes, down 10.47 million tonnes, or 11%, from July and down 4.67 million tonnes, or 5%, from 88.71 million tonnes in 2008-09.

"This month’s lower (rice) crop forecast is primarily due to the effects of a below-normal monsoon in India," the USDA said. Production in India was projected at 84 million tonnes, down 15.5 million tonnes, or 16%, from July and down 15.15 million tonnes, or 15%, from 99.15 million tonnes produced in 2008-09.

World Grain