News
29.10.2009
US harvest delays throw crop size into question
Historic harvest delays are forcing US farmers to harvest soyabeans and corn with quality problems and undesirably high moisture levels, and the ultimate impact on production is uncertain, analysts said. "We've never had a concurrent bean and corn problem like this, with late harvest and wet weather. So the trade really doesn't know how to handle it," said Charlie Sernatinger, analyst with Fortis Clearing Americas.
"They don't know all the ramifications of what this kind of weather is going to end up doing to the crop, either the quality or possible bushel losses." The US harvest is off to its slowest start since at least 1985 due to wet weather and late-maturing crops. The US Department of Agriculture said the corn harvest was 20 percent complete by Sunday, up only three points from the previous week and behind the five-year average of 58 percent.
USDA put the soyabean harvest at 44 percent complete, up from 30 percent a week earlier and behind the five-year average of 80 percent. Some states made good progress, particularly east of the Mississippi River. Ohio soyabean progress jumped to 75 percent, from 34 percent a week earlier.
Progress in the west was slower. Iowa's soya crop was 47 percent harvested, up only 10 points from the previous week. While the remaining crops sit in the fields, they are vulnerable to diseases, mold, lodging from wind and yield loss, along with snowfall that will further complicate harvest.
All those variables will make it difficult to pin down the size of the crops in time for the USDA's next crop production report, which is set for November 10 and will reflect conditions as of November 1. USDA this month forecast a record-large soyabean crop of 3.25 billion bushels, and the second-largest corn crop on record at 13.02 billion bushels.
"Whatever numbers come out in November are going to be subject to a lot of questions," said Greg Wagner, an analyst with AgResource Co "Effectively what we've done is pushed getting a real handle on crop size to January." Farmers have been scrambling to harvest soyabeans first because they are seen as more vulnerable to damage than corn. "Every day the beans are sitting in the fields now, we are losing yield," said Palle Pedersen, an agronomist with Iowa State University.
"We are probably losing around 2 percent every week now, which may not sound like a lot. But if you have 50 bushel (per acre) beans, that's a bushel a week." That urgency is prompting farmers to harvest soyabeans whenever they can, even if the beans are too wet for grain elevators to accept. Farmers can dry their soyabeans by aerating them in grain storage bins, although not everyone has enough storage capacity.
Farmers are also facing costs to dry high-moisture corn, using propane heat. The magnitude of the volume of corn needing drying could strain the US grain handling system. "Probably 80 percent of the corn in the United States is going to have to be dried," Sernatinger said.
"The efficiency of drying this stuff is being tested. You hear all kinds of reports of dryer fires because they are running them too hot," he said. Kernel moisture levels in much of the Midwest are running at 20 to 30 percent, while the standard for storage is 15.5 percent. Wet, cool weather and dwindling daylight hours have diminished the crop's ability to dry naturally in the fields.
So after farmers finally are able to harvest corn, they may face additional delays to have it dried artificially. "The elevators can only take it as fast as they can dry it," said Bob Klein, an agronomist with the University of Nebraska. "That can slow harvest down quite a bit."
Reuters
