News
11.11.2009
U.S. 2010 wheat, soybean carryover raised
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Nov. 10 projected larger 2010 U.S. carryover stocks of wheat and soybeans but a smaller carryover of corn compared with October projections in its Nov. 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. World wheat and soybean carryover also was raised for 2010 while world corn was lowered.
Projected carryover of U.S. wheat on June 1, 2010, was 885 million bushels, up 21 million bushels, or 2%, from the October projection of 864 million bushels, up 228 million bushels, or 35%, from 657 million bushels in 2009, and a 10-year high.
Soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2010, was projected at 270 million bushels, up 40 million bushels, or 17%, from 230 million bushels projected in October and up 132 million bushels, or 96%, from 138 million bushels in 2009, the USDA said.
Projected corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2010, was 1.63 billion bushels, down 47 million bushels, or 3%, from 1.67 billion bushels projected in October, and 49 million bushels, or 3%, under 1.67 billion bushels in 2009.
The projected 2010 USDA carryover numbers for wheat and soybeans were above the averages of pre-report trade estimates, but the corn number was below the average of expectations.
U.S. all wheat production was projected at 2.216 billion bushels for 2009, down 4 million bushels from October based on slightly lower estimates for spring wheat and durum production, and down 283 million bushels, or 11%, from 2.49 billion bushels in 2008. Imports for 2009-10 were unchanged from October at 110 million bushels. Total wheat supply in 2009-10 was projected at 2.983 billion bushels, down 4 million bushels from October but up 51 million bushels, or 2%, from 2.93 billion bushels in 2008-09.
Exports of U.S. wheat for 2009-10 were projected at 875 million bushels, down 25 million bushels from October and down 140 million bushels, or 14%, from 1.02 billion bushels in 2008-09. Domestic food use of U.S. wheat in 2009-10 was projected at 955 million bushels, unchanged from October and up 30 million bushels, or 3%, from 2008-09. Feed and residual use was projected at 190 million bushels, unchanged from October and down 70 million bushels, or 27%, from last year. Seed use was projected at 78 million bushels, unchanged from October but up 3 million bushels from 2008-09. Total wheat use in 2009-10 was projected at 2.098 billion bushels, down 25 million bushels, or 1%, from October and down 177 million bushels, or 8%, from a year earlier.
The average farm price of U.S. wheat in 2009-10 was projected to range from $4.65-$5.05 a bushel, up 10ў on the bottom end of the range but down 10ў on the top end from October, and compared with $6.78 in 2008-09 and $6.48 in 2007-08.
Global 2009-10 wheat production was projected at 671.89 million tonnes, up 3.77 million tonnes from October but down 10.86 million tonnes from record large outturn of 682.75 million tonnes in 2008-09. World wheat ending stocks were projected at 188.28 million tonnes in 2009-10, up 1.55 million tonnes from 186.73 million tonnes in October and up 23.54 million tonnes, or 14%, from 164.74 million tonnes in 2008-09.
U.S. soybean production in 2009 was projected at a record high 3.319 billion bushels, up 2% from 3.250 billion bushels forecast in October and up 352 million bushels, or 12%, from 2.967 billion bushels in 2008. Imports for 2009-10 were reduced by 2 million bushels from October, to 8 million bushels. Total 2009-10 U.S. soybean supply was projected at 3.47 billion bushels, up 67 million bushels from 3.40 million bushels in October and up 280 million bushels, or 9%, from 3.19 billion bushels in 2008-09.
Domestic soybean crush in 2009-10 was projected at 1.695 billion bushels, up 5 million bushels from October and up 33 million bushels from 1.66 billion bushels in 2008-09. Seed use was unchanged from October at 94 million bushels and down 1 million bushels from 2008-09. U.S. soybean exports in 2009-10 were projected at 1.33 billion bushels, up 20 million bushels from 1.31 billion bushels in October and up 42 million bushels, or 3%, from 1.28 billion bushels in 2008-09. Total soybean use was projected at 3.20 billion bushels, up 26 million bushels from October and up 148 million bushels, or 5%, from 3.05 billion bushels last year.
The average farm price of soybeans was projected to range from $8.20-$10.20 a bushels in 2009-10, up 20ў on each side of the range from October, and compared with $9.97 in 2008-09 and $10.10 in 2007-08.
Global soybean production in 2009-10 was projected at 250.23 million tonnes, up 4.16 million tonnes, or 2%, from 246.07 million tonnes in October and up 39.39 million tonnes, or 19%, from 210.84 million tonnes in 2008-09. Ending stocks were projected at 57.39 million tonnes in 2009-10, up 2.6 million tonnes, or 5%, from 54.79 million tonnes in October and up 15 million tonnes, or 35%, from 42.39 million tonnes the previous year.
U.S. corn production in 2009 was projected at 12.92 billion bushels, down 97 million bushels, or about 1%, from 13.02 billion bushels in October, but up 7% from 12.1 million bushels in 2008, and the second largest crop on record if realized. Imports in 2009-10 were unchanged from October at 10 million bushels. Total corn supply in 2009-10 was projected at 14.61 billion bushels, also down 97 million bushels from 14.7 billion bushels in October but up 866 million bushels, or 6% from 13.74 billion bushels in 2008-09.
Total domestic corn use in 2009-10 was unchanged from October at 10.88 billion bushels, but up 673 million bushels, or 7%, from 10.21 billion bushels last year. Included were feed and residual use projected at 5.4 billion bushels, up 3% from 5.25 billion bushels in 2008-09, food and seed use at 1.28 billion bushels, up 4 million bushels from last year, and use for ethanol at 4.2 billion bushels, up 523 million bushels, or 14%, from 3.68 billion bushels in 2008-09. U.S. corn exports in 2009-10 were projected at 2.1 billion bushels, down 50 million bushels, or 2%, from October but up 242 million bushels, or 13%, from 1.86 billion bushels in 2008-09.
The average farm price of corn was projected to range from $3.25-3.85 a bushel in 2009-10, up 20ў on each end of the range from October and compared with $4.06 in 2008-09 and $4.20 in 2007-08.
World corn production in 2009-10 was projected at 789.73 million tonnes, down 2.81 million tonnes from 792.54 million tonnes in October and down 2.38 million tonnes from 791.92 million tonnes in 2008-09. Global corn ending stocks were projected at 132.41 million tonnes for 2009-10, down 3.84 million tonnes from 136.25 million tonnes in October and down 13.54 million tonnes, or 9%, from 145.95 million tonnes in 2008-09.
U.S. rice production in 2009 was projected at 218.2 million cwts, down 2.4 million cwts from October but up 14.5 million cwts, or 7%, from 203.7 million cwts in 2008. Carryover of rice on Aug. 1, 2010 was projected at 44.2 million cwts, down 2.4 million cwts from October but up 13.8 million cwts, or 45%, from 30.4 million cwts in 2008-09. The average farm price of rice was projected to range from $13.85-14.85 a cwt, up 85ў on both ends of the range from October and compared with $16.80 a cwt in 2008-09 and $12.80 in 2007-08.
World rice production was projected at 432.09 million tonnes, down 1.56 million tonnes from 433.65 million tonnes in October and down 13.68 million tonnes, or 3%, from 445.77 million tonnes in 2008-09. Ending stocks were projected at 85.92 million tonnes, up 20,000 tonnes from 85.9 million tonnes in October but down 5.05 million tonnes, or 6%, from 90.67 million tonnes in 2008-09.
World Grain
