News
15.07.2011
Ukraine, Russia and Kazakhstan in 2011 to increase its share in the world grain exports – forecast
In the current year the world grain production is expected to grow to the level of 2.3 bln tonnes, an increase of 3% compared to 2010 results, reported Dmitiy Prikhodko, Economist of the Investment Center of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the UN, during work of the Analytical forum in Kiev on July 14, which was organized by APK-Inform Agency and the Analytical Center SovEcon.
Also it is expected that the general consumption of grains will increase by 1.4%.
According to the expert, the world wheat production will rise by 3%. The growth of wheat production in Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan in 2011 will reach to the level of 90 mln tonnes. D.Prikhodko noted that the share of the countries in the world exports increased from 11% to 18%.
According to the long-term forecasts, by 2020 the global wheat production will rise to the level of 740 mln tonnes.
According to the expert, by 2020 the nominal price of wheat will total 250 USD/t, while the real prices will vary within the range of 200-220 USD/t.
D.Prikhodko noted that in the specified period the USA will stay the leading world exporter of maize, but the countries of the Black Sea region will stay the main exporters of wheat. He forecasted that wheat of the Black Sea origin can take up to 30% of the world market.
According to the recent estimations of the FAO and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the potential of grain production by 2020 in Kazakhstan will rise by 100%, in Russia - up 64%, in Ukraine - up 103%. D.Prikhodko called low rainfall volumes in the major grain-producing regions of Ukraine, Russia and Kazakhstan as the main constraint to increasing of grain yields.
