News
30.09.2009
Oil World sees booming US soya exports from October
US exports of soyabeans, soya oil and meal are expected to rise sharply from October but will not be able to offset a sharp decline in South American supply, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday. Delayed harvesting in several parts of the United States has contributed to scarce soyabean supplies at US export locations, but Oil World expects the situation to reverse in coming months as harvesting picks up.
"Due to the prospective sharp increase in US soyabean crushings and exports, we consider November soyabean futures undervalued at the moment and expect a recovery in the medium term," Oil World said in a weekly report. It said the record pace of US soyabean disposals would reduce total US soyabean stocks to a 5 year low by the end of February 2010.
Oil World's current US soyabean stock estimate for end February 2010 is 34.7 million tonnes, down from 37.0 million tonnes at end-February 2009. It said that Argentine and Brazilian soyabean stocks were unusually low as of end August, with some crushing plants closing due to a lack of soyabean supplies.
This would result in a sharp decline in South American exports in October-February 2009/10 which could not be offset by the US or other supplying countries, Oil World said. "World soyaa meal supplies will continue to be scarce until early 2010. This will keep soyaa meal prices high," it said.
Reuters
