News
03.03.2010
Australia forecasts declines in sorghum, winter grain crops
The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE) released on March 2 the agency's commodities report and forecast.
The area planted to sorghum in 2009-10 is estimated to have declined significantly to roughly 429,000 hectares, which is around 43% lower than in 2008-09. ABARE attributed the decline to insufficient rainfall over the summer cropping regions at the time of planting. The planting window for sorghum has closed in northern New South Wales and southern Queensland and is approaching closure in central Queensland. ABARE forecasted production to be around 1.3 million tonnes in 2009-10.
The agency is forecasting that winter crops area will decline in 2010-11. Although 2009-10 winter crop production was higher than the 2008-09 season, yield and quality results were highly varied between and within regions. Wheat yields in Victoria and South Australia were 52% and 51% above the respective five year averages, while New South Wales and Queensland yields were below, according to ABARE. Total wheat production increased by 3% across Australia to 21.7 million tonnes, largely because of increased production in Victoria and South Australia, the agency said. The area planted to wheat in 2010-11 is forecast to be marginally lower at around 13.7 million hectares. ABARE forecasted the area planted to barley to decline by roughly 2% to 4.4 million hectares.
ABARE forecasted Australian wheat exports in 2010-11 to be roughly 13.9 million tonnes, largely unchanged from 2009-10. Export earnings from wheat are forecast to be around $3.8 billion in 2010-11, which is a decline of 4% from 2009-10, according to the agency.
For the Australian medium-term outlook, ABARE is forecasting that over the five years to 2014-15, the area sown to grains and oilseeds is will average around 23.5 million hectares, compared with an average of 22.5 million hectares over the 10 years to 2009-10.
Grains and oilseed production is projected to reach 43 million tonnes by 2014-15, assuming seasonal conditions are favorable. ABARE attributed increases in production to increases in area sown and higher yields partly because of improved productivity.
World Grain
