Will Ukraine's EU accession cause a flood of food imports, bankrupt the EU Budget and create trade conflicts?

Ukrainian Agribusiness Club together with UCABEvent agency invites you to the fifth online discussion, dedicated to potential impact of Ukraine’s EU accession on the EU agricultural sector and policies. 

• July 16, 2024 (Tuesday)
• 11:00 - 12:30 (Kyiv time)/10:00-11:30 (CET  time)
• English

Access is free of charge: https://forms.gle/a8Yxr4tGrtHKzuZg7

Agenda

11:00 - 11:15
Kick-off remarks. European integration of Ukrainian agricultural sector. Government’s view

 11:15 - 12:00 Panel Discussion
 Moderator: Nazar Bobitski, Head of the UCAB EU office

Panelists:

• Prof. Dr. Thomas Herzfeld, Head of Department Agricultural Policy, Leibniz Institute for Agriculture and Transformation Economies (IAMO)
• Prof. Alan Matthews, Department of Economics, Trinity College Dublin
• Dr. Alex Lissitsa, President of UCAB

12:00 - 12:20 Q&As from online audience. 

12:20 - 12:30 - Alex Lissitsa, President of UCAB, concluding remarks. 

Context:

The launch of Ukraine’s EU pre-accession negotiations and approaching expiry of the current multiannual EU budgetary period raise alarm bells across the EU about how Ukraine’s accession is going to affect the EU agricultural sector and the policy framework supporting it, notably the EU Common Agricultural Policy.  Specifically, the EU decision makers, prompted by the European farmer organizations and experts identify the following points of tension brought about by Ukraine’s accession:

•  the necessary scope of reform of the CAP, including the need to take account of the EU climate and sustainability policy objectives;
• the size and principles of distribution of the EU budget earmarked for the CAP direct payments system;
• the risk of (over)(in)flow of duty-free Ukrainian agricultural products on the EU Internal Market and the ability of the EU agricultural sector to cope with it.

At our fifth UCAB online fireside chat we will discuss these key interrelated topics with leading European experts on agricultural policy and economics and will attempt to dispel existing fears and misconceptions while formulating policy recommendations to decision makers in the EU and Ukraine who will engage in working on these issues in the long and arduous process of pre-accession negotiations.

Specifically, the debate among our panelists will revolve around the following set of questions:   

1.   There are several scenarios of Ukraine’s impact on CAP budget, which are currently put forth for the discussion among the experts. From 96,5 bn EUR over seven years according to the EU Council commissioned study (13,78 bn per year) to Estonia’s Centre for Defence and Security (ICDS) assessment of 10,4 bn per year (just above France’s 9,3 bn) to the one by Jacques Delors Centre of 7,6 bn per year. What’s your take on these assessments, what are their strong and weak points in the methodology applied? What’s your predictions, also taking into account past precedents with 1985-1986 enlargements (Iberian countries, Greece), and 2004-2007 ones?

2.   What were the scenarios of CAP reform before the prospect of Ukraine’s accession came into play (departure from area-tied direct payments system, emphasis on sustainable practices, renationalization of CAP payments)? Can you assess the impact of Ukraine on all these CAP reform scenarios?

3.    It is clear that until full EU accession, trade in agriproducts between EU and Ukraine should be managed. The way the latest extension of the EU Autonomous Trade Measures was handled gives certain clues how this issue would be tackled. However, with full accession no tariffs or quotas are supposed to limit free circulation of agriproducts between EU and Ukraine. Should EU agriproducers fear a ‘flood’, or look forward to ‘opportunities’ for the European higher value-added agricultural industries, i.e. animal husbandry, food processing? How do you assess the overall balance, single out particular sectors?

4.   What benefits would you see from an enlarged EU agricultural sector with Ukraine combined, in terms of food sovereignty and competitiveness, as well as EU climate and sustainability goals.