News
12.10.2011
Ukraine could double grain exports by late 2011, says expert
Ukraine by late 2011 could double its grain exports to ten million tonnes, Voldoymyr Lapa, Director General of the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club, has said.
"The situation on the grain market was settled in time as expected [by market players]. It will give a chance for them to export around ten million tonnes of grain by January 1, 2012 with the export potential being 24-25 million tonnes… We'll be in a unique situation when we export less grain in the first half of the season compared to the second one," he said at a press conference in Kyiv on Monday.
Lapa said that total cash cost of key grain production in Ukraine is UAH 1,400-1,500 per tonne, while the present market prices of fodder grain are UAH 1,200-1,300 per tonne and the prices of bread wheat are UAH 1,600-1,700 per tonne. The expert forecasts that export prices of wheat will fall to UAH 1,200-1,300 per tonne, taking into account the worsening situation on the global markets. He said that one should expect a slight fall in the prices of grain on the domestic market – within UAH 100-150 per tonne.
Lapa said he was convinced that the cancelation of export duties on grain would not compensate for the losses of Ukrainian grain traders due to the fall in the prices on the international markets.
"Over the past three weeks the price of grain on international markets has fallen by $50 per tonne, and the decision of the Verkhovna Rada to cancel grain and corn export quotas will not cover all of the losses that exporters will face," he said.
Lapa said that the functioning of the Ukrainian grain market has become rather depressed due to state regulation of the sector.
He expressed hope that Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych will sign a law on the cancelation of the grain export quotas passed by parliament.
