News
01.03.2010
National Bank worsened the GDP fall forecast
The National Bank of Ukraine increased its forecast for the fall of GDP in 2009, said Valery Litvitsky, chief of the NBU Head’s advisory group.
“Our forecast of a 14% decline in Ukraine’s economy was based on the expectation of a 5% drop in GDP in the 4th quarter. It now looks like the final rate of the 2009 decline will be 15%,” said V.Litvitsky.
In his opinion, Ukraine’s recovery from the crisis may appear more difficult than seemed before. “We underestimated recession risks and overestimated positive trends. There is a probability that falling GDP will be registered in January 2010, too. And the rate for the 1st quarter may be lower than +5-8% expected by us,” noted the NBU representative.
Among the key potential threats the expert pointed out curtailment of lending in China and zero growth in Germany’s GDP in the 4th quarter of 2009, which slowed down euro zone growth to 0.1% against the 3rd quarter.
“This worsening may imply slower restoration of the world demand that will affect the pace of Ukrainian economic stabilization,” V.Litvitsky believes.
Earlier, Ukrainian Economy Minister Bohdan Danylyshyn had stated before that the government expected Ukraine’s GDP to fall by 12% in the whole year of 2009. However, when drafting the Y2009 State Budget, the Economy Ministry estimated that GDP would grow by 0.4% in 2009.
