The global wheat crop is forecast at 676 MMT - down by 5 MMT from previous forecast and 19 MMT below the previous year’s record, the International Grains Council said on Thursday. The EU crop forecast is reduced sharply due to reports of worse
than expected winter damage and recent dry conditions.

Growth in food and industrial use is expected to be outweighed by a fall in feed, but total world consumption is forecast to show only a limited decline.

The forecast of world stocks at the end of 2012/13 is cut by 2 MMT, to 206 MMT (210MMT in 2011/12).

Having reached a new peak of 140m. tons in the past year, reduced imports for feed could see global wheat trade slump by about 5 MMT, but much will depend on the level of feed wheat prices relative to maize.

An increase in 2012 plantings is forecast to lift world maize production by 4%. World supplies could top 1bn. tons for the first time, with exportable availabilities more comfortable due to bigger crops in the US and Ukraine.

Demand is forecast to increase by around 3%, led by higher feed use. Little change in industrial use is expected due to a slowdown in the US ethanol sector. End-ofseason stocks may increase for the first time in four years, including a rebound in the US.

World trade is projected to increase by around 6%

WORLD ESTIMATES, million tons
08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 est 12/13 forecast
02.04 26.04
WHEAT
Production 685 679 654 695 681 676
Trade 137 128 126 140 136 135
Consumption 645 652 655 684 683 680
Carryover stocks 173 200 198 210 208 206
year/year change +41 +27 -2 +12 -4
Major exporters a) 69 78 73 76 73 70
MAIZE (CORN)
Production 800 820 828 865 900 900
Trade 84 86 93 94 100 100
Consumption 784 821 844 869 893 893
Carryover stocks 150 148 133 128 129 135
year/year change +16 -2 -15 -5 +7
TOTAL GRAINS*
Production 1802 1800 1755 1842 1876 1869
Trade 250 240 243 260 263 263
Consumption 1731 1769 1784 1838 1870 1865
Carryover stocks 373 404 375 379 380 383
year/year change +71 +31 -29 +4 +4
Major exporters a) 159 172 138 131 140 139


a) Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU, Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine, United States
* Wheat and coarse grains
Source: IGC

Anyfoodanyfeed