News
07.12.2009
GDP decrease and inflation to be at 13-14% for 2009, an expert
The decrease in gross domestic product (GDP) and inflation rate for the entire year of 2009 will be at 13-14%. This was stated by Valeriy LITVITSKY, chief of the advisory group of the head of Ukraine’s National Bank. According to him, now there is not enough statistical data, in particular those on GDP, to make an exact conclusion about the national economy’s condition and whether it is recovering from the crisis. In opinion of the expert, in the crisis it is necessary to restore the form of GDP reporting which existed last year (beginning from 2009 the State Statistics Committee switched from monthly to quarterly publishing of the GDP behavior data).
Mr. LITVITSKY believes a number of risks incl. unbalanced state finances, devaluation of the national currency, slow recovery of the foreign demand for Ukrainian products, excessive borrowings may promote turning of the the current year’s decline into economy depression and a long-term decline. Besides, he considers “credit and investment anemia” as another economic depression risk.
V.LITVITSKY believes that other risks include the drops in investments, exports and consumption.
“… anyway the demand needs to be maintained, otherwise we’ll have a depression for the next decade,” emphasized the chief of the National Bank head’s advisory group. At the same time he pointed out that Ukraine has every possibility to withstand such a long-term recession.
V.LITVITSKY reported that actually all branches of Ukraine’s economy, except for the retail trade, have already “come off the bottom” and a slowdown in the decline can be stated today.
UkrAgroConsult
