News
18.12.2009
China's big crop guesses may be down to false data
Beijing's estimates of huge grains harvests this year may be based on false information, US staff have said, warning of big drops in China's corn and wheat output.
US attaches in Beijing have stood by their forecasts that China's corn production tumbled by 16m tonnes this year, with wheat output falling 6.5m tonnes.
These estimates are in line with those of many private analysts.
The Beijing data continuing to show significantly higher crops may have been distorted by a subsidy regime which pays out in relation to production reported by each province.
'Tempted to overstate'
"To gain more allocation of financial aid from the central government... provincial government authorities are occasionally tempted to overstate their grain output in a given year even if the crop was impacted by adverse weather," a report from the attaches said.
"Though government agencies report a bumper corn harvest for the sixth consecutive year, [this bureau] estimates that corn production in 2009-10 dropped 9% from the previous year to 150m tonnes."
China's official grain think tank, the China National Grain and Oils Information Centre, last month retained its forecast for the crop at 163m tonnes, with the US Department of Agriculture last week standing by a 155m-tonne figure.
For wheat, the attaches estimated a 106m-tonne harvest, compared with a CNGOIC figure of 114.95m tonnes and the USDA's 114.5m tonnes.
Four setbacks
The attache's lower estimates were based in part on crop tours, which revealed corn yields "significantly impacted by adverse weather patterns such as prolonged drought during critical growth states".
Crops in parts of northern China had also suffered from so-called lodging, or stalk breakage, caused by high winds late in the growing season.
Lodged crops are more difficult to harvest and, in America, suffer production losses of 5-25%, US academics say.
Wheat production had dropped 10-20% in parts of major producing provinces such as Anhui and Henan, which the attaches had also visited.
"According to one trade source, four factors adversely impacted the winter wheat crop in 2009 - winter drought, plant disease, hot and dry wind before harvest, and rain damage around harvest time," the attaches said.
Agrimoney
