According to estimations of the Association “Ukrainian agribusiness club” (UCAB), gross yield of grain and oil crops in 2014/15 MY is forecast to 55-56 million tonnes (excluding currently occupied territory of Crimea), which is 6,5 -7,5 million tons (11,9-12,1%) less than previous year. Export is expected to reach 26-27 million tons which is 6,3-7,3 million tons (18,8-21,8%) less than expectations of 2013/14 MY. 

“One of the negative factors, which influence the forecast of future yield, is price increase for production resources due to devaluation of national currency. Considering, ukrainian agriculture producers will be forced to revise production technology, which in turn could lead to decrease in primary crop yield”, the expert on agriculture markets of UCAB Igor Ostapchuk says.

Besides, due to cold weather conditions, particularly, in most Ukrainian regions, corn yield could be worse than expected. According to UCAB forecast, wheat production in 2014/15 MY  is expected at 21,2 – 22,2 million tonnes, barley – 6,8-7,3 million tonnes, corn – 24,5-25,5 million tonnes (excluding currently occupied territory of Crimea).

Assessment of forthcoming gross yield was conducted after allowing for harvest season of spring crops, quality of winter crops, agro-meteorological conditions, and other factors, which has remarkable influence on future harvest. Moreover, the forecast is complicated by temporal political situation as well as economic instability. Hence, one of the crucial issues is how to complete sowing campaign in Donetsk and Lughansk regions. Despite these, forecast of potential gross yield might be correlated on account of climate conditions and other significant factors.   

Association "Ukrainian Agribusiness Club" 

3 floor, 146 Zhylianska Str. 

01032 Kyiv, Ukraine 

Phone/Fax: +380 44 2362097/79 

kotyk@ucab.ua 

Tetiana Kotyk 

www.ucab.ua

The Association "Ukrainian Agribusiness Club" (UCAB) www.ucab.ua was founded in 2007 to protect the economic and professional interests of players of agribusiness in Ukraine. UCAB is a unique platform in Ukraine for establishing business contacts between the leaders of agribusiness, improvement their work and dialogue with the government. UCAB actively supports Ukrainian producers in establishing and maintaining international business relations. The Association consists of the largest producers and processors of agricultural products in Ukraine.