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29 March 2024

News

12.03.2015

In 2015 grain harvest in Ukraine is estimated at 50 million tonnes

In 2015 grain harvest in Ukraine is estimated at 50 million tonnes

The experts of the Association "Ukrainian Agribusiness Club" (UCAB) conducted a preliminary analysis of the grain industry of Ukraine at the beginning of the sowing season. The cost of sowing of spring grains this year may amount to about UAH 34,9-36,4 billion, depending on the rate at which inputs were purchased. At the same time, the area under spring grains might be reduced by 9%, and the yield might amount to 50.5 million tonnes. 

UCAB experts have estimated the total cost of the optimal complex for sowing grains this spring at UAH 64,7-67,4 billion, 54% of this sum is intended for sowing spring grains. Due to the devaluation and the lack of sufficient credit resources agrarians are experiencing a significant shortage of funds. Small and medium-sized producers face the biggest problems as they have sold the major part of the yield at the beginning of the season and have not taken care about the preservation of the value of revenues (currency transactions, purchase of inputs). Export-oriented producers are in the best position, since the devaluation gave them additional benefits and helped to increase revenue in UAH equivalent.

The current area under the main spring grains (wheat, barley and maize) is going to be at the level of 6.2 million hectares, 68% is going to be put under maize, 29% under barley  and 3% under wheat. There is going to be a reduction in cultivated areas compared with the last year; in particular the area under maize will be reduced the most - by 5-10%. The main grains in general (winter and spring) will occupy the area of ​​13.7 million hectares, that is 2.4% less than last year. At the same time, agrarians will focus on the increase of areas under oilseed crops, such as soy, as it has proved to be very profitable.

"This year we do not expect the average yield index for grains to be at the level of the last year and the year before last. Worse wintering conditions, a significant shortage of funds, the uncertainty of weather conditions, as well as future economic and political situation do not allow us to predict an optimistic scenario. According to the Agrobarometer 2.0 Research Study, about 39% of agrarians are deficient in mineral fertilizers, in particular due to their high cost, and another 20% are willing to reduce or abandon the use of plant protection products. In this case it is necessary to predict the average yield at around 3.8 t/ha", - UCAB expert on agricultural markets Igor Ostapchuk says. 

Under such circumstances, Ukrainian agrarians are about to gather around 50.5 million tonnes of main grains: 20.6 million tonnes of wheat, 6.4 million tonnes of barley and 23.4 million tonnes of maize. However, it should be noted that this is only the first forecast, which is going to undergo further changes during the field work, formation and ripening of grains. Please find the latest amendments, as well as an extensive review of the monthly markets of grains and oilseeds on the web site of the Association "Ukrainian Agribusiness Club" (UCAB).

 

  

Association "Ukrainian Agribusiness Club" 

3 floor, 146 Zhylianska Str.

01032 Kyiv, Ukraine

Phone/Fax: +380 44 2362097/79

kotyk@ucab.ua 

Tetiana Kotyk 

www.ucab.ua

 

The Association "Ukrainian Agribusiness Club" (UCAB) www.ucab.ua was founded in 2007 to protect the economic and professional interests of players of agribusiness in Ukraine. UCAB is a unique platform in Ukraine for establishing business contacts between the leaders of agribusiness, improvement their work and dialogue with the government. UCAB actively supports Ukrainian producers in establishing and maintaining international business relations. The Association consists of the largest producers and processors of agricultural products in Ukraine.

 

 

 




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